| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Weber State | 45-10 | 1566.2 | +0.0 | 1566.2 | 59.4% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | L | Louisville | 14-28 | 1566.2 | -19.1 | 1547.1 | 28.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Liberty | 31-13 | 1547.1 | +32.0 | 1579.1 | 69.5% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 35-10 | 1579.1 | +24.4 | 1603.5 | 64.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Georgia State | 14-7 | 1603.5 | +12.6 | 1616.1 | 88.8% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Louisiana | 24-14 | 1616.1 | +16.6 | 1632.7 | 75.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Old Dominion | 63-27 | 1632.7 | +20.6 | 1653.3 | 69.5% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | W | Texas State | 52-20 | 1653.3 | +19.3 | 1672.6 | 82.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Marshall | 35-23 | 1672.6 | +32.0 | 1704.6 | 69.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | App State | 58-10 | 1704.6 | +6.6 | 1711.2 | 89.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Washington State | 24-20 | 1711.2 | +9.4 | 1720.6 | 85.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 59-10 | 1720.6 | +17.7 | 1738.3 | 83.9% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | Troy | 31-14 | 1738.3 | +13.6 | 1751.9 | 79.2% |
| 18 | Dec 20 2025 | L | Oregon | 34-51 | 1751.9 | -10.2 | 1741.7 | 15.9% |